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Central Bank expects 4.4% inflation in Azerbaijan for 2015

Central Bank expects 4.4% inflation in Azerbaijan for 2015

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Date: 12 November 2015 14:57

Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.12

By Azad Hasanli – Trend:

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) expects 4.4 percent inflation in the country in 2015, a CBA report said.

“A drop in prices on the global consumer markets, continuing devaluation in partner countries, and the current money supply dynamics will have a downward effect on inflation,” stated the report.

The inflation in Azerbaijan will be 10.9 percentage points lower than in CIS countries and 3.4 percentage points lower than inflation among its trade partners, according to estimates based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund.

“The results of monitoring the manufacturing sector, conducted by the Central Bank, are completely equal to the outlook for inflation,” the report said. “Thus, according to the monitoring results, the index of price expectations rose in industrial and services sectors, remained neutral in the construction sector, and decreased in the trade sphere.”

The report added that the predictions of single-digit inflation in the country demonstrated the adequacy of monetary and exchange rate policies held in 2015 by the CBA.

Earlier, the Azerbaijani government forecast a 6.2 percent increase in consumer prices for the current year.

In January-September 2015, inflation in Azerbaijan was 3.7 percent, according to the State Statistics Committee.

The prices on 119 goods and services (23 services, 30 food items, and 66 non-food items), included in the consumer basket, have dipped in Azerbaijan over the first nine months of the year. The prices on three non-food items and 42 services remained unchanged.

During the reporting period, the industrial producer price index fell by 33.2 percent; extractive industry, by 37.1 percent; and processing industry, 8.9 percent. The oil price reduction mainly impacted extractive output prices.

The production prices on agricultural products rose by 4.7 percent in January-September 2015. The cattle prices increased by 1.1 percent; crop prices, 7.8 percent; fish products, 3 percent.

The official exchange rate is 1.503 AZN per US dollar, as of Nov. 12.

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