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OPEC decreases forecasts for Kazakhstan’s 2016 oil production

OPEC decreases forecasts for Kazakhstan’s 2016 oil production

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Date: 10 December 2015 15:47

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 10

By Elena Kosolapova – Trend: Kazakhstan’s oil production is expected to decline by 60,000 barrels per day to average 1.53 million barrels per day in 2016 compared to 2015, OPEC says in its December oil market report.

In November oil market report OPEC predicted that oil production in Kazakhstan will decline by 30,000 barrels per day to average 1.57 million barrels per day in 2016.

OPEC noted that the latest guidance from Eni suggests the giant Kashagan field is on track for a late 2016 startup, so the contribution to supplies next year is likely to be minimal. Different sources have said that Kashagan is unlikely to start production before mid- 2017, the report said.

In 2015 Kazakhstan’s oil supply is expected to decrease by 40,000 barrels per day over the previous year to average 1.59 million barrels per day, OPEC said.

In August Kazakhstan’s output declined by 86,000 barrels per day compared to July to 1.51 million barrels per day, the lowest level since October 2014. This was due to a 0.1 million barrels per day decline in Tengiz output.

OPEC noted that lower investment in mature onshore fields, such as Uzen and Emba, is weighing on the country’s operations.

“Evidence suggests some smaller Kazakh producers have already shut in wells due to poor economics,” the report said.

Kazakhstan produces oil mainly from its largest oil fields - Karachaganak and Tengiz.

Karachaganak field is one of the world's largest fields. Its oil and condensate reserves stand at 1.2 billion tons, and gas reserves exceed 1.35 trillion cubic meters. As of today, almost 45 percent of gas and 16 percent of all liquid hydrocarbons produced in Kazakhstan are being extracted from this field.

The Tengiz field in the west of Kazakhstan is one of the deepest and largest oil fields in the world. Total estimated reserves amount to three billion tons (26 billion barrels).

Another large Kazakh oil and gas field is Kashagan located in the north of the Caspian Sea. Oil production at Kashagan started in September 2013, but its operation was suspended after a gas leak appeared from the ground pipeline stretching from the Island D to the Bolashak plant. The government expects to resume oil production at Kashagan in late 2016.

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