Saxo Bank: oil prices can make drastic return to $100 per barrel

Saxo Bank: oil prices can make drastic return to $100 per barrel
13:17 16 Dekabr 2015
Ölkə mətbuatı
A- A+

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.16


Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has today released its annual set of ‘Outrageous Predictions’ for the year ahead.

These are 10 unlikely, yet perhaps underappreciated, events that could have significant consequences on the financial landscape as we venture into 2016.

As ever, the predictions span the length and breadth of markets and geographies; ranging from oil making a drastic return to $100 a barrel to Silicon Valley’s much vaunted unicorns returning to myth. Other claims include the Russian rouble rising 20% versus the US dollar/euro basket, the Olympics turbo-charging a Brazilian recovery and a meltdown in corporate bonds.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: “We are nearing the end of the paradigm paralysis that has dominated the policy response to the global financial crisis. Quantitative easing and other forms of intervention have failed. China is transitioning, and geopolitical tensions are as complex as ever. The marginal cost of money is rising, and so is volatility and uncertainty. It is against this backdrop we have set this year’s predictions.”

“Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions remain an exercise in finding ten relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your investment world upside down. It is rewarding to see how the Outrageous Predictions catch our clients’ imagination and fuel ongoing debate; it is this process of discussion and anti-herd thinking that is at the heart of Saxo’s now established tradition of attempting to draw attention to the unfathomable” Steen Jakobsen added.

Please see below for Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions 2016

1. EURUSD direction? It’s 1.23…

Europe is running a massive current account surplus and its weaker inflation should, in macroeconomic logic, mean a stronger currency, not a weaker one. The race to the bottom has gone full circle, meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome of US interest rates policy.

2. Russia’s rouble rises 20% by end-2016

By the end of 2016, a surge in oil demand and the Fed raising rates at an inappropriately slow pace causes the Russian rouble to rise some 20% versus the US dollar/euro basket in 2016.

3. Silicon Valley’s unicorns brought back down to earth

2016 will resemble 2000 in Silicon Valley with more startups delaying monetisation and tangible business models in exchange for adding users and trying to achieve critical mass.

4. Olympics to turbo-charge EM’s Brazil-led recovery

Stabilisation, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped by cheaper local currencies. The result: EM equities to have a great year - outperforming bonds and other equities.

5. Democrats retain presidency, retake Congress in 2016 landslide

The Republican Party goes from strength to dramatic weakness as the rifts from an internal struggle on its future direction play out. This leads to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party as they successfully execute a get-out-the-vote campaign with Millennials coming out in droves having been frustrated by the political stalemate and weak job prospects of the last eight years.

6. OPEC turmoil triggers brief return to $100/b oil

OPEC’s crude oil basket price drops to the lowest since 2009 and unease among weaker as well as wealthier members of the cartel over the supply-and-rule strategy continues to grow. The long awaited sign of an accelerated slowdown in non-OPEC production finally begins to flicker. Suitably buoyed, OPEC catches the market on the hop with a downward adjustment in output. The price mounts a quick recovery with investors scrambling to re-enter the market to the long side - once again bringing $100/barrel prices onto the horizon.

7. Silver breaks golden shackles to rally 33%

2016 will see a renewed confidence in silver. The political drive towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions by supporting renewable energy will add to increased industrial demand for the metal, given its use in solar cells. As such, silver will rally by a third, leaving other metals behind.

8. Aggressive Fed sees meltdown in global corporate bonds

Late 2016 will see Fed chief Janet Yellen embark down a hawkish path with a series of aggressive rate hikes, triggering a huge selloff in all major bond markets as yields start to rise. As the portions of bank and broker balance sheets allotted to bond trading and market making have almost disappeared, one of the vital parts of a functioning market is simply not there. This realisation sinks in too late and the entire buy-side flee into a panic selling one-way street, as highly advanced risk models lurch into a symmetric red alert.

9. El Niño sparks inflation surge

Next year’s El Niño will be the strongest on record and will cause moisture deficits in many areas of southeast Asia and droughts in Australia. Lower yields across agricultural commodities will curb supply at a time when demand is still increasing on the back of global economic expansion. The outcome will be a 40% surge in the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, adding some much-needed inflationary pressure.

10. Inequality has last laugh on luxury

Faced with rising inequality and unemployment of over 10%, Europe is considering the introduction of a basic universal income to ensure that all citizens can afford to meet their basic needs. In a more egalitarian society where other values are promoted, demand for luxury goods decreases sharply - the sector collapses.

To join to the conversation and for updated insights, don’t forget to follow Trading Floor and Saxo Bank.

The whole publication “Outrageous Predictions for 2016” can be found here:

About Saxo Bank

The Saxo Bank Group (Saxo) is an online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, offering a complete set of trading and investment technologies, tools and strategies.

A fully licensed and regulated bank, Saxo enables private and institutional clients to easily trade multiple assets from a single margin account on multiple devices seamlessly.

Saxo’s award winning trading technology platforms are available in more than 20 languages and form the technology backbone of more than 100 financial institutions worldwide.

Saxo also offers traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank in select markets.

Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Copenhagen, Saxo employs 1500 people in 25 offices across the five continents.

Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at

Follow us on Twitter @TRENDNewsAgency




Ölkə mətbuatında bugün »

Bakıda 38 yaşlı kişi özünü bıçaqlayaraq intihar etmək istəyib

24 May 2017 02:42

Ağcabədidə traktor yanıb

24 May 2017 02:36

İran saytında Bakı haqqında FOTOSESSİYA

24 May 2017 02:33

Küllücə tufliləri - FOTO

24 May 2017 02:32

Rusiyaya səfərini yarımçıq qoyacaq -

24 May 2017 02:32

28 May-Respublika Günü Tehranda qeyd edildi

24 May 2017 02:24

Cocuq Mərcanlıda tank əleyhinə mina və partlamamış hərbi sursat aşkar edilib

24 May 2017 02:12

ÜST-ə yeni rəhbər gəldi

24 May 2017 02:04

Ağcabədidə traktor yanıb

24 May 2017 01:54

Putin Filippin prezidenti ilə görüşür

24 May 2017 01:50

Ümumdünya Səhiyyə Təşkilatına yeni baş direktor seçilib

24 May 2017 01:47

“Beynəlxalq Bank 2018-ci ildən tez özəlləşdirilməyəcək” -

24 May 2017 01:41

Britaniyada terror təhlükəsi səviyyəsi kritik həddə qaldırılıb

24 May 2017 01:32

Ən məşhur moda şousunun qonaqları - FOTO

24 May 2017 01:32

Keçmiş arvadının evini yandıran ər: “Həmişə içkili oluram...” - FOTO/VİDEO

24 May 2017 01:28

"Mançester Yunayted" ulduz futbolçuya görə illik 14 milyonundan keçməyə hazırdı

24 May 2017 01:28

Quba sakinlərini hamamda boğub, cəsədlərini çaya atdılar - FOTO

24 May 2017 01:03

Cocuq Mərcanlıda tank əleyhinə mina və qumbara aşkarlanıb

24 May 2017 00:57

Ermənistanın təhlükəsi yenidən Avropanın diqqət mərkəzində

24 May 2017 00:49

Filippin prezidenti Rusiyaya rəsmi səfərini yarımçıq qoyub

24 May 2017 00:47

Venesuelada prezidentə qarşı etiraz aksiyalarında ölənlərin sayı 55-ə çatıb

24 May 2017 00:42

Bakıda 80 yaşlı qadın oğlu tərəfindən qəddarcasına döyülüb

24 May 2017 00:37

Cənubi Koreya-Şimali Koreya sərhədində silah səsləri eşidildi

24 May 2017 00:26

Biləsuvar RMX-nın baş həkimi işdən azad olundu

24 May 2017 00:24

123 mərtəbəli göydələndə dəhşətli anlar - VİDEO

24 May 2017 00:23

Afaq, Nərgiz və Tolik Bodrumda dincəlir - FOTO

24 May 2017 00:12

Astroloji proqnoz - 24 may

24 May 2017 00:08

Əlidən etiraf: "Kaş ki..." - VİDEO

24 May 2017 00:05

Günün qoroskopu: əsəb sisteminizə çox yük düşür

24 May 2017 00:05

Birmingemdə aksiya zamanı əlində bıçaq və dəyənək olan şəxs saxlanılıb

23 May 2017 23:57

Üz üçün “Minus 10" maskası

23 May 2017 23:57

Trampla çəkdirdiyi "selfi" israilli deputatın başına bəla oldu -

23 May 2017 23:56

Üç qız atası ilə evlənən 49 yaşlı xalq artistinin TOYUNDA NƏLƏR BAŞ VERDİ?

23 May 2017 23:53

Qarın bölgəsindəki pylərdən xilas edən içki

23 May 2017 23:52

Adams, Messi, Vardi... – Qanunsuzluğa əl atanlar

23 May 2017 23:52

Saçların yağlanmasına gətirən 6 səbəb

23 May 2017 23:47

Bu 3 dəstə İmam Zaman ağaya yardım edəcək

23 May 2017 23:42

"Barselona"nın sükanı arxasına keçəcək baş məşqçi hazırkı komandasından istefa verib

23 May 2017 23:37

Böyrək daşları və xalq təbabəti

23 May 2017 23:37

"Azərbaycan Beynəlxalq Bankı 2018-ci ildən tez özəlləşdirilməyəcək" - Nazir

23 May 2017 23:32

Məşhur gözəl Kann təqdimatında - FOTO

23 May 2017 23:32

Sevil-Sevinc bacıları maşınla vurduqları 87 yaşlı kişi haqda:

23 May 2017 23:31

Cocuq Mərcanlıda mina və qumbara tapıldı

23 May 2017 23:29

Baş ağrısından dərmansız qurtulmağın SADƏ YOLU

23 May 2017 23:27

Alman deputatlar Türkiyəyə getməkdən boyun qaçırdı

23 May 2017 23:23

Venesuelada etiraz aksiyası qurbanlarının sayı 55 nəfərə çatıb

23 May 2017 23:22

“Yasin” surəsi niyə Quranın qəlbidir?

23 May 2017 23:22

Zəvvarlarla dolu avtobus çaya düşdü - 22 ölü

23 May 2017 23:22

“VAZ” və “Opel” toqquşdu, yaralanan var

23 May 2017 23:19

Çiyələk yemək üçün 7 səbəb

23 May 2017 23:17